Science

Wrong confidence: Why your most confident colleague may not be your best leader

New research reveals that people who are naturally responsible and dominate social situations may not have better decision-making than their retained peers. This study challenges common assumptions about leadership and raises questions about how we choose leaders in business and society.

Research from the University of Kent found that social leaders show higher confidence in their decision-making, although their actual performance does not improve others. This finding could explain how these people often rise to the position of power regardless of their actual abilities.

Debunking the leadership myth

“While high status in social hierarchies are often associated with socially-led individuals, our research shows that decision-making performance has no advantages and why confident performance can actually be an effective social strategy regardless of competence.”, He led research at the School of Psychology, University of Kent.

The science behind faith

The research team conducted three different studies involving more than 400 participants using statistical learning tasks and memory tests. The results, published on personality and individual differences, show that despite achieving similar accuracy rates, have consistent confidence in social leaders in decision-making compared to others.

Interestingly, this increased confidence is specific to decision-making and does not extend to memory tasks, suggesting that the subject’s overconfidence is a domain-specific feature rather than a general feature.

Gender and domination

Contrary to common belief, the study found no significant differences in the level of social domination or their expression of confidence. This challenges the long-standing assumption that the dominant-driven strategy is primarily male traits.

The impact of leadership

These findings have a significant impact on how organizations choose and promote leaders. Although confident people may be more likely to seek and reach leadership positions, their confidence alone does not demonstrate excellent decision-making skills.

Research shows that the manifestation of confidence may be a cognitive shortcut that, even if the lack of evidence, leads to other people’s ability. This could explain why even in the case where actual performance does not support this perception, even in the case of such perception, socially dominated individuals are often seen as more capable.

The direction of the future

Researchers believe that further research in real-world organizational environments can help understand how these dynamics work in professional environments. This may be particularly relevant to industries where decisions occur in uncertain and turbulent conditions such as financial markets or corporate leadership.

These insights can help organizations develop better leadership selection processes that go beyond confidence to assess practical decision-making capabilities. They also raise important questions about how society can better identify and promote truly capable leaders rather than just the most confident leaders.

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