Will authoritarian narratives shape Japanese public opinion?

An authoritarian regime is a kind of government system in which power is restricted in the hands of a single leader or group, thus limiting citizens’ participation in decision-making.

As authoritarian countries such as China and Russia strengthen their global information movements, a new study highlights Japan’s vulnerability to free narratives. The study was led by Professor Tetsuro Kobayashi of Waseda University and Dr. Yuan Zhou, a research assistant at Kobe University. Koç University student Lungta Seki and Professor Asako Miura of Osaka University published online on March 12, 2025 Democratization. The study shows that these narratives are more persuasive than mainstream democratic messaging, revealing the potential risks of Japanese political discourse.

Kobayashi and the team examine how Japanese citizens respond to narratives that spread the autocratic regime compared to the dominant narrative in democratic societies. Through online survey experiments, they exposed participants to two types of measurement transitions in narrative and perspectives. The results are surprising: even though their sources are clearly identified, illegal narratives have a greater influence than mainstream democratic narratives. “The results show that both liberalism and mainstream narratives have a persuasive influence in the expected direction. However, liberal narratives tend to have a greater impact than mainstream narrative,” Kobayashi wrote.

Given the second key findings of the study, this finding is particularly concerning: the lack of political knowledge, authoritarian tendencies and expected moderating roles of conspiracy theory. Unlike similar studies conducted in Germany, studies conducted in Germany are more susceptible to political knowledge and strong authoritarian tendencies, and Japanese respondents are susceptible to free narratives regardless of their political image. “The political knowledge of participants did not regulate the persuasive effects of free narratives. This shows that not only are the free narratives affecting specific parts of the Japanese population, but also that Japanese are susceptible to sensitivity,” Kobayashi wrote.

When both democratic and liberal narratives are introduced together, their influences are largely cancelled against each other. But when a liberal narrative follows a democratic narrative, it retains its persuasiveness. This means that once a liberal narrative enters public discourse, it may be difficult to resist even in countries where democratic narratives dominate. This suggests that mainstream narratives will not effectively inoculate the public to avoid future free news transmission.

These implications go beyond Japanese domestic politics. As Japan plays a crucial role in the US-led liberal international order, the infiltration of non-free narratives may have an impact on the consistency of its foreign policy. If Japanese public opinion shifts a shift that favors authoritarian countries, it could undermine Japan’s support for democratic alliances and international norms.

This has raised concerns about Japan’s resilience to cognitive warfare. With the authoritarian states improving their influence, Japan may need to take stronger measures to offset manipulative narratives. “This study highlights the urgency of increasing democratic resilience by honing effective protest and raising public awareness of foreign influence strategies,” said Dr. The conclusion is Kobayashi. If not resolved, the spread of free narratives could undermine trust in democratic institutions and divert public opinion in a way that supports authoritarian interests, emphasizing democratic discourses that promote media literacy and public awareness to maintain an increasingly controversial information space.