If a nuclear war breaks out, the explosion belt may not be the only place to die.
According to a new Penn State University simulation, a prolonged nuclear winter could damage agriculture around the world, cutting global corn production by up to 80%, and triggering a food crisis that has lasted for more than a decade. The study used one of the most advanced agroecosystem models available to explore how the reduction of sunlight and increased UV radiation would change the global growth environment. The results show that there is an urgent need for an “agricultural elastic kit” filled with fast-growing, hardy seed varieties that can make the food system float in the disaster after the disaster, the researchers said.
Simulate the future that no one wants
In published papers Environmental Research Letterthe researchers modeled six different nuclear war scenarios using a circular agroecosystem model developed by Penn State. These range from smaller regional wars between India and Pakistan to comprehensive global exchanges involving the United States and Russia. Each scenario assumes soot ash to enter different levels of the atmosphere, from 5 to 150 Teragrams (TGs) for sudden global cooling, shortening growing seasons and huge crop losses.
Corn is the world’s most extensive cereal and is used as a proxy for assessing the vulnerability of global food supply. Lead author Yuning Shi said annual corn production fell by 80%, which could “cause a widespread global food crisis.” Even the smallest model scenario is expected to drop by 7%, which still could have a significant ripple effect in trade, prices and food security.
Major discoveries of nuclear winter simulation
- 5 TG soot injections (regional wars) could lead to a 7% drop in global corn production.
- 150 TG soot injections (global war) could result in an 80% drop in corn production per year.
- UV-B radiation caused by ozone destruction may cause 7% loss.
- Crop yields may take 7 to 12 years to recover – appropriate adaptation strategies are established.
- Hardy-resistant corn adapted to short seasons can increase yield by 10% compared to lack of adaptability.
The simulations were performed at high spatial resolutions of 38,572 sites, which took into account soil type, climate, planting schedules and crop maturity. “This survey could improve our understanding of global agricultural resilience and adaptation to catastrophic climate disruptions,” Shi said.
The damage of the sky
Nuclear winter is more than just cold. The study included UV-B damage for the first time, showing how atmospheric changes in nuclear explosions eliminate ozone and expose crops to harmful radiation. “This will damage plant tissue and further limit global food production.”
The soot initially protected the earth from UV rays, but it disappeared within a few years. By then, ozone depletion allowed UV-B to reach the surface at a destructive level, peaking six to eight years after a massive war. The cumulative effect may increase the total corn loss to 87%.
Can we adapt in time?
Switching to short seasons suitable for cooler temperatures, fast-growing corn varieties may help. The model shows that during the recovery phase, the strategy can increase yield by 10%. But there is one capture: the availability of suitable seeds.
“Seed availability could become a key adaptation bottleneck,” the team warned. Modern agriculture relies on global supply chains to distribute hybrid seed varieties targeting specific regions. Failure of these systems can make adaptation more difficult.
Agricultural elastic kit: Lifeline after disaster
The team proposed pre-production assembly of the Agricultural Resilience Kit (ARKS), which contains seed and emergency planting information for specific areas. These kits may include cold wheat, barley or potatoes, not just corn.
“These kits will help maintain food production within a few years of instability after the nuclear war,” said Armen Kemanian, professor of production systems and modeling and corresponding author of Penn State’s production system and modeling. He added that the ark concept could also adapt to other crises, such as volcanic eruptions or extreme weather events.
Shi (Shi) is frank about the challenge: “A proactive, internationally coordinated planning for this suite is impossible, but simply raising awareness can help lead to better preparation.”
Learn from the past and plan for the future
The researchers compared their predictions with historical events, including the Tambora eruption in 1815, which led to the infamous “No summer in a year.” The volcanic eruption has damaged the global climate for more than a year, causing widespread crop failure and famine.
“People might think that research on this nature is just staring at the belly button,” said Kaymanian. “But they force us to realize the vulnerability of the biosphere.”
As global tensions intensify, it’s not just academic to understand these worst-case scenarios. As the authors conclude, our society is not prepared for global disasters, but not necessarily.
Magazine: Environmental Research Letter
doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/adcfb5
Publication date: May 13, 2025
title: Adapting agriculture to climate disasters: Nuclear winter
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