Two futures face humanity: social collapse or global leap

According to new modeling research, humanity is at a crossroads between a gradual social collapse and a leap towards a sustainable prosperity.

The Earth4All study, published in global sustainability, reveals how rising inequality and environmental damage create dangerous feedback loops that undermine governments’ ability to address threats like climate change.

This study describes two very different situations for the rest of the century. In the “too little too little” pathway, current economic policies continue to drive inequality, while global temperatures soared by 2°C, triggering what researchers call “a stable gray, more fragmented world.”

Social tension as a killer of climate policy

What sets this study apart is integrating social dynamics into climate predictions. Researchers have developed new indices to track social tensions and well-being, revealing how these factors shape governments’ ability to make long-term decisions.

“By integrating the social tension index and welfare index, we are able to emphasize the importance of social dynamics in climate scenarios,” explains Nathalie Spittler, co-author of Boku University. “Achieving climate goals is not only a matter of technology and economic development.”

The model shows that social tensions rise sharply when people think their living standards are stagnant and elites move further forward. This erosion of trust creates a vicious cycle in which governments lose the political capital needed to implement ambitious climate policies.

Five transformations to change everything

Another “giant leap” scenario shows that the shift remains through five simultaneous policy shifts that researchers call “extraordinary turnover”:

• Eliminate poverty by making substantial investments in developing countries
• Reduce inequality through progressive taxation and stronger worker rights
• Strengthen women’s empowerment by improving health, education and economic opportunities
• Change the food system through sustainable agriculture and dietary changes
• Revolutionize energy through rapid renewable deployment and efficiency improvement

If these changes are implemented simultaneously from the 2020s, global warming can be kept below 2°C while steadily improving global welfare. The model shows a reduction in inequality, easing of social tensions and the ability of the government to restore long-term plans.

Technological innovation conforms to social reality

Lead author of Espen Stoknes of BI Norwegian Business School highlights the central findings of the study: “We asked a simple but pressing question: Can human well-being improve while reducing the pressure on planetary boundaries, is our model “yes”?

The Earth4All model builds on the system dynamics approach pioneered in the 1970s “growth limit” study, but combines important social feedback mechanisms lacking in early work. Unlike conventional economic models that assume balance, this approach captures how social and environmental factors interact over decades.

The model tracks global developments from 1980 to 2020 to establish baseline trends and then predicts them under different policy assumptions. A key innovation is how progress in simulations perceived affects social cohesion, which in turn affects the political feasibility of major reforms.

Narrow windows, lots of wooden piles

The study highlights the speed and scale of action required to avoid decomposition of civilizations. “The huge leap scene shows that we have a technically reasonable but ambitious path,” Stockness noted. “This requires a level of international cooperation and political leadership that we have not seen yet, but this political shift can still bring a thriving future for mankind on a stable planet.”

Without such coordination, the “too few” pathway will lead to temperatures exceeding 3°C, widespread ecological collapse, and as internal fractures deepen, society is increasingly unable to effectively manage it. The researchers warn that this trajectory could cause “a series of interconnected disasters.”

The timing of this study proves particularly relevant, as current global policies point to 3.1°C warming in 2100, which puts the world firmly on the dystopian trajectory unless extraordinary measures are immediately started. Research shows that reducing inequality and rebuilding social trust may be prerequisites for the political consensus needed to effectively address climate change.

Related