According to a breakthrough study published this month in the British Journal of Political Science, the stark revelation of global citizens in the modern state of democracy is losing confidence in elected representatives, while proposing more trust in law enforcement and civil servants.
This comprehensive study, analysing responses to more than 5 million countries spanning sixty years, reveals a related model: Since 1990, trust in democracies has dropped by about 9 percentage points, while trust in police forces That increased by 13 percentage points in the same period.
“The decline in public trust in political authorities is crucial, which is a challenge facing democratic governments in many countries today,” said Dr. Viktor Valgarðsson, lead author of the study. “Low political trust is often associated with support.” Popular parties and leaders in political institutions are related to support. This also makes it difficult for the government to deal with crises such as climate change and the COVID-19-19 pandemic.”
The study is unprecedented in its scope, examining investigations conducted between 1958 and 2019 and found a clear gap between how citizens viewed elected officials and unelected institutional authorities. These findings are a particularly disturbing situation for major democracies, with 36 countries including the United States, France, Brazil and Australia showing significant declines in parliamentary trusts.
Regional changes
This study reveals regional differences in trust patterns. The level of trust in Latin American countries continued to rise until 2014, and then dropped sharply. At the same time, the Asia-Pacific region has shown greater stability in institutional trust. Some countries have totally shocked the global trends – Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Ecuador and New Zealand have all shown increasing trust in representative bodies.
In the UK, researchers have found that in recent decades, trust in Congress and government has gradually declined, surrounding a brief increase in the Brexit referendum. Since the 2008 financial crisis, Britain’s trust in legal institutions and police has been on an upward trajectory.
The meaning of democracy
The difference in trust in elected and unelected institutions has raised concerns about democratic stability. While citizens maintain confidence in the implementation of institutions such as police and civil servants, their confidence in elected representatives has gradually weakened, creating vacancy for fewer democratic governance.
Research co-author Professor Will Jennings offers a more optimistic view: “The decline in trust in democratic institutions is not inevitable. If this is about the way democratic politics is practiced, it is citizen distrust, and perhaps those politics need to change. .”
The research team stressed that support for democratic ideals remains strong among the global population, despite the decline in trust in democratic institutions. This paradox shows the potential for democratic renewal rather than inevitable decline.
Methods and scope
The methodology of the study represents a significant advancement in understanding global trust trends, combining data from 3377 surveys conducted by 50 different research projects. The researchers used complex statistical techniques, including Bayesian dynamic latent trait models, to discover latent patterns in the data.
The results highlight the need for democratic societies to address skepticism about elected officials while maintaining the active development of the implementation institutions. Rebuilding trust in representative institutions may be crucial for effective governance as democracies deal with multiple challenges ranging from climate change to economic inequality.
The study was supported by the British Economic and Social Research Council and Leverhulme Trust and published its findings in the February 2025 British Journal of Political Science.
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