The industry has greatly overestimated the amount of fresh water available for lithium mining

The world’s transition to electric vehicles and renewable energy storage may be based on dangerous flaw assumptions. A new study shows that we have significantly estimated the amount of freshwater available for lithium mining in the South American “lithium triangle”, which could threaten fragile ecosystems, indigenous communities and green energy supply chains themselves.

“There are no new freshwater in these systems at all,” said David Boutt, professor of geosciences and senior author of the study at Umass Amherst. Although the regular model estimates the inflow of freshwater from 90 to 230 millimeters per year, the team’s new measurements show a clear reality of just 2 to 33 millimeters, depending on the basin.

This huge miscalculation is due to the global push toward battery storage on electric vehicles and grid-scale, due to the demand for lithium expected to increase forty-fold in the next few decades. These findings raise urgent questions about the sustainability of current and planned mining operations in an area that has struggled with water scarcity.

Led by Alexander Kirshen, research assistant at UMass Amherst, the team examined 28 different basins in the 160,000 square miles of high altitude landscape of the lithium triangle. Their assessment concluded that “all basins in all of the 28 basins in our study should be classified as ‘severe water scarcity’, even if not included in the current, there is no requirement for water supply for anything in the future,” said the report.

The unique geology of the lithium triangle creates a complex hydrological system. Lithium accumulates in brown groundwater under the basin and settles in solution. These dense lithium-rich brines are often located in the freshwater mouths that form lagoons, creating habitats for unique ecosystems and species such as flamingos.

The traditional extraction method involves pumping brine into an evaporation tank and concentrating lithium before processing. However, as the industry expands, many operations are shifting to newer direct lithium extraction (DLE) technologies – a study found that this may have a greater moisture content. According to the researchers, 56% of DLE operations in the triangle use more water than traditional methods, while nearly one-third of DLE operations have increased tenfold.

These implications go beyond ecological problems. The indigenous communities that have lived in for hundreds of years depend on the same water resources. As mining operations expand, conflicts over water rights have emerged in parts of the triangle.

What is particularly important for this study is its approach. The distant, extreme environment of the lithium triangle – sitting at the height of the Andes, with limited monitoring stations – makes accurate assessment difficult. Under these specific conditions, global hydrological models that industries and regulators rely on are never calibrated.

Butte noted: “The climate and hydrology of lithium triangles are difficult to understand.” He explained why his team developed its own professional model, the Li-enclosed Basin Water Availability Model (LICBWA).

These findings present challenging dilemmas for the transition to green energy. Lithium remains crucial for batteries that power electric vehicles and store renewable energy, but extracting it can drain valuable water in already stressful areas.

The research team did not recommend abandoning lithium mining, but instead asked for immediate cooperation among “scientists, local communities, regulators and producers” to reduce water use and improve monitoring. A better understanding of precipitation patterns, flows and groundwater levels may lead to more sustainable extraction methods.

As automakers and battery manufacturers face increasing pressure to secure ethical supply chains, this study highlights the complex trade-offs inherent in the clean energy transition. The BMW Group and BASF that funded the research may indicate a growing awareness of these sustainability challenges in the industry.

For now, these findings suggest that the path to a green future may be more complex than previously thought, requiring careful navigation of water shortages in the world’s most important lithium regions.