In April, Kashmir once again entered the focus of world news as militants killed 26 people against tourists in India-managed Jamu and Kashmir territory. The tensions followed, with brief but fierce strikes and counterattacks on both sides of the militarized and historically harmful India-Pakistan border. This lasting conflict between India and Pakistan is closely related to the impact of climate change on glaciers and water resources in the region.
The day after the initial attack, India announced that it would suspend its obligations under the Indian Waters Treaty (IWT). The IWT was promulgated 65 years ago as a water sharing agreement between India and Pakistan, with no legal evacuation clauses. Although the treaty was designed before climate change was considered a problem, it has long been regarded as a valid example of cross-border water sharing. However, recent conflicts have exacerbated relations between neighboring countries, meaning the long-term future of the treaty is pending.
The Upper Indus River is melted by glaciers that melt from the Karacom and the Himalayas. Studies estimate that about 40% of Indus runoff comes from extensive glacial coverage and may also be changing rapidly when combined with melting in annual snow accumulations – possibly up to 72%. Therefore, the events in Kashmir are not relevant to glaciers in the Himalayas and Karacom, which provides both countries with a crucial lifespan of water.
Almost all of Pakistan’s water comes from the Indus River, the main water resource for a population of 200 million. More than 90% is used in crops such as rice, wheat, sugar cane, cotton, beans, fruits and vegetables; this employs nearly half of Pakistan’s labor force, representing a quarter of its total GDP. Given that these crops require a large amount of water supply, which comes primarily from irrigation rather than rainfall, Pakistan is considered one of the world’s most watery economies.
Upmanu Lall, former director of the Columbia Water Center, said: “For Pakistan, the Indian Treaty no longer relies on the dependence of the Indus waters. (LALL is currently the director of the Water School of Arizona State University’s Julie Ann Regley Global Futures Laboratory.)
River flows are changing rapidly due to seasonal changes in glacier melts caused by climate change. As glaciers supplying the Indus lost mass throughout the century, studies predicted that river runoff could decrease by 70% in some bases. The less water flow increases further strain on the moisture separation relationship set by the IWT, as each side strives to secure limited resources.
Historical competition between India and Pakistan has led to water becoming a weapon of political power. India’s water strategy involves maximizing the rights stipulated by the IWT, and Pakistan has been repeatedly considered a series of actions to deliberately restrict water supply, which has led to an increasing sense of distrust among neighbors. Since the establishment of the treaty, India has demanded that the clause be renegotiated in 2023 and again in 2024 as new strategic priorities develop. It is clear that important cooperation in supporting the IWT is becoming increasingly vulnerable.
If India restricts flows downstream of the Indus River, it could undermine efforts to improve the situation in Pakistan. Since the suspension of IWT, India has proposed a start date for the four hydropower stations currently under construction, with its development previously restricted due to the terms in the treaty, sources said. The commissioning of large water infrastructure projects underscores the differences in capabilities among neighbors, and India uses its technological advantages to leverage its power over water resources in the region.
“I can’t speculate whether India will really try to develop the resources it uses, which is contrary to its policies over the past 75 years, but it seems Pakistan, as a country seeking peace, will also invest in improving agricultural water,” Lar said.
Pakistan also faces serious water problems within its borders. Rising water demand driven by rapid population growth has caused a water security crisis, with sources predicting that Pakistan will reach absolute water scarcity this year (demand exceeds supply). The allegations of poor water management, exploitation and hostile disputes between provinces complicate growth pressures. In Karachi, the most densely populated city in Pakistan, water theft is widespread, leading to concerns that government failure to successfully control the management of water resources could lead to increased violence, further driving instability.
Furthermore, when water supply is sufficient, Pakistan does not have enough storage facilities to hold water for later use, which means the system loses a lot of water. The important role water plays in the livelihoods of people in the region erodes trust that resources will be shared fairly among Pakistani provinces and local governments can manage disputes. This in turn exacerbates efforts to not have access to reliable water supplies.
By producing food, this is driven by the Pakistan economy and is related to livelihoods. “Food security is determined by the capacity of the specific crops purchased by the government,” Lall said. “Farmers receive a range of subsidies that translate into high-water-clean crops grown in limited water areas and are inefficient for irrigation.”
Pakistan recognizes the increased pressure on water sharing arrangements, which also has an additional motivation to enhance its resilience to water insecurity. With temperatures rising and more unpredictable weather patterns, climate change is a relentless challenge that requires adaptation to speed. Effective management at all levels from home to local governments and national governments is crucial to addressing Pakistan’s water problems. Coordinated efforts must address unregulated water use and illegal withdrawal and exacerbate the rise in water quality and pollution.
Although the IWT has survived three wars before, the new conflict threatens progress promoted by early treaties. At a time when global challenges international cooperation, maintaining the IWT-standard moisture sharing arrangements may be crucial to the stability, food and water security of the region and ultimately become a problem for daily life.
As glaciers play a central role in the dynamics of the region and the uncertain temporal standards that may completely disappear, managing the delicate balance of moisture sharing may remain a major challenge throughout the century.
