Rising homicide rates predict future suicide risk in U.S. counties

The second year, communities with rising homicide rates often face a second quieter crisis: the increase in suicides.

A major study by Rutgers University spans 50 years of U.S. county data, found a disturbing link between local violence and self-inflicted deaths, especially when guns are involved. The study shows that homicides, especially gun-related homicides, can predict a surge in suicides, most notably in rural areas and among white Americans. The findings show that the psychological shock of community violence persisted long after the crime video was removed.

Homicide and Suicide: Two aspects of the same crisis

“Local violence not only harms the victims, it solidifies the entire community to increase the risk of suicide,” said Daniel Semenza, principal author and director of the research center for Gun Violence Research in New Jersey. “Preventing violence is preventing suicide.”

Posted in Social Sciences and Medicinethe study used a rigorous quasi-experimental statistical model (called System GMM) to analyze annual observations of more than 159,000 counties from 1968 to 2019. This approach allows researchers to isolate the effect of homicide rates on subsequent suicide rates, which are considered economic, demographic and geographical variables.

Key findings include:

• Homicide rate in the county rose by 1 point, predicting suicide rate rose by 3.6% the following year
• Gun homicides and gun suicides increased by 5.7%
• The strongest influence in rural counties and white populations is
• Even in black communities where homicide rates are usually higher, it is related to moderate rise in suicide

Gun amplification cycle

Research has found that guns have exacerbated the relationship between homicide and suicide. Since guns are highly lethal, their availability increases the possibility that suicidal thoughts become fatal behaviors. This finding echoes earlier research, suggesting that access to guns increases suicidal capacity, especially among people traumatized by community.

“The links to gun-related deaths are particularly strong, suggesting that community-level gun violence may have a uniquely significant impact on population mental health,” the authors wrote.

Race, geography and a broken safety net

While both white and black communities are affected, the data reveals obvious differences. A single point increase in white homicide rates predicts that the following year, white suicide rates will increase by 4.0% and gun suicide rates will increase by 7.3%. In contrast, the same increase in homicide rates in the black population resulted in less than 1% increase in total gun suicides.

Why the gap? Researchers believe that in major white communities, homicide may indicate an unexpected collapse of social order, triggering despair. Meanwhile, the black community (which is about to face higher structural adversity exposure) may have developed a collective adaptation of chronic violence. Protective factors such as higher religious participation may also play a role in mitigating the risk of suicide.

Rural counties bear the greatest burden

The rural effect stands out: the spillover of murder and suicide is the weakest, and the strongest in rural areas. After the increase in homicides, the risk of suicide in rural areas increased by 5%, while the risk of suicide in urban environments was only 2.4%. Sparse mental health resources, cultural barriers to seeking help, and close-knit communities where trauma can quickly decay may lead to this pattern.

Prevent suicide

This study challenges the long-standing public health gap between homicide and suicide. It argues that these results are not isolated but originate from common social and structural conditions, namely persistent, marginalized, violent exposure and easy access to guns. Solve one needs to solve another problem.

“Relationships and self-guided violence are interconnected and should be considered.” Semenza said.

Going forward, the authors call for suicide prevention strategies that go beyond personal interventions. Reducing violence, especially gun violence, may also reduce suicides within the community. These include investing in mental health care, promoting social cohesion and responding to inequality – especially in rural areas of the United States.

Magazine: Social Sciences and Medicine
doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2025.118406

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