Disappearing water threatens endangered seals as community of Caspian retreats

According to a groundbreaking study released Thursday, the world’s largest inland water body is shrinking at an alarming rate, threatening not only unique wildlife, but also billions of dollars in infrastructure and millions of dollars in livelihoods.

Since 2001, scientists in some coastal areas have recorded water levels falling faster than previously thought, with some of them retreating more than 56 kilometers (35 miles) of inland areas. This study reveals that in Communications Earth & Environment, the northeastern part of the ocean has lost nearly half of its water coverage in just two decades.

“Even actions to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions are inevitable, even if actions to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions are taken,” said Dr. Simon Goodman, of the University of Leeds School of Biology, who oversees the study. “However, with the expected impact of decades of expected impacts, ways to protect biodiversity should be found while safeguarding human interests and well-being.”

The Caspian Sea, bordering five countries (Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia and Turkmenistan), has long been important for fishing, transportation and oil extraction. However, the increase in the inflow of rivers like Volgal causes more water to evaporate.

The researchers found that on the current trajectory, even if global warming is limited to below 2°C, and if the temperature rises further, the sea may drop by 5 to 10 meters (16-33 feet) even if global warming is limited to below 2°C.

From a perspective, the team noted that the water level drops from sea level by only 10 meters, which will approximately 112,000 square kilometers (a area larger than Iceland) from sea to desert.

The consequences are already visible. In the northwestern Spain, the Bay of Comor is officially recognized as an “region in the ecological and biological sense” and is almost completely dry, forcing the endangered Caspian seals to find new habitats for the crucial spring friction period.

The Caspian Seal, which has been classified as endangered since 2008, faces additional pressure due to the decline in ice coverage required for reproduction. The researchers calculated that the water level dropped by 5 meters, which could reduce sealed breeding habitat by up to 81%.

“The current trend decline is associated with global warming-driven reductions, with dramatic increase in sea surface temperature and evaporation,” the authors noted in their study.

St. fish are precious ancient fish with their meat and caviar, and as shallow waters inhabited in summer and fall disappear, habitat has also decreased by 25% to 45%.

Perhaps the most concerned are conservationists, and the decline may make the current reserve obsolete. The study found that the coverage of marine protected areas would drop from 16.8% at sea to a drop of only 10 meters by 1%.

Human communities face equally difficult challenges. In the Caspian Sea region to the north, coastal settlements may find themselves hundreds of thousands or even hundreds of kilometers from the new coastline. Russia’s Lagen Port can be separated from water to 115 kilometers, while the main oil fields currently accessible by ships will be inland.

Fishing communities may see their livelihoods collapse completely, and the newly exposed seabed brings another danger.

“The exposed dry seabed is likely to release dust containing industrial pollutants and salt, posing a serious threat to human health, as it had happened before when Aral Sea was dry,” the researchers warned.

The team consists of scientists from eight countries and suggests that dynamic programs replace traditional fixed protection methods that can change with changing coastlines.

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Dr. Elchin Mamedov of the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of Azerbaijan highlighted the broader implications: “This is an important study because it highlights the risks posed by climate change to biodiversity and local communities in the Caspian Sea, and requires enhanced regional and international cooperation to help manage impacts.”

The authors of the study highlight that over 15 million people live along the Caspian coast and have significant geopolitical interests in the region’s energy resources, but that unless action is taken immediately, environmental crises may have global impacts.

Researchers at Rebecca Court, PhD researcher highlighted this urgency: “We hope this study will help raise awareness of the trajectory and potential impact of sea level decline. This mapping should better provide policy makers and protectionists with plans to plan ahead and address numerous issues.”

While this may be inevitable, researchers insist that coordinated programs among the five Caspian countries, along with global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, can help mitigate the greatest impact on natural and human communities.