According to the researchers, a devastating avian influenza outbreak has dealt a catastrophic blow to the large elephant seals in southern Patagonia, potentially recovering the population for nearly a century.
Scientists from the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) Argentina, CONICET, and the University of California Davis published findings this week in Marine Mammal Science revealing the grim aftermath of the 2023 H5N1 virus epidemic that swept through Península Valdés in Argentina, killing virtually all newborn pups and an undetermined number of adults.
On-site observations of the 2024 breeding season have confirmed the researchers’ worst fears. The number shows that reproductive women on beaches that were previously densely populated areas decreased by 67%, with the figure falling from 6,938 women in 2022 to 2,256 in 2024.
“As decades of growth, Península Valdes’s seal of the Southern Elephant is a healthy crowd and the protagonist of a stunning natural glasses. Until the bird flu of 2023 leaves thousands of dead calves, our eyes are weeping,” said WCS Valeria Falabella. ”
The research team modeled various situations to predict how long it might take to recover. If the epidemic affects only newborns, the population may bounce to 2022 levels within 6-29 years (about 18,000 adult women), as puppies naturally experience high mortality rates.
But the data suggests a large number of adult mortality rates have occurred, which portrays a more disturbing situation. If the virus significantly affects reproductive women, researchers estimate that the colony won’t be able to recover the prevalence of flowing through until 2091.
Some predictions are even hidden. Scenarios involving female and male mortality, or repeated outbreaks against susceptible seals, restore potential recovery to the mid-22nd century.
Dr. Marcela Uhart, director of the Latin American Program at the University of California, Davis, highlighted the broader implications: “Bige flu has clearly demonstrated the devastating effects of infectious diseases on wildlife populations. These effects may intensify in the current and projected state of climate change.”
The sudden reversal of the fate of this colony is particularly shocking considering its previously stable trajectory. From 2000 to 2022, the population has grown steadily every year to 0.9%, reaching a seemingly healthy, sustainable level with no obvious threat.
Then there is the avian flu in 2023. Within weeks, the population that researchers called “unprotected attention” became vulnerable and faced an uncertain future.
Scientists’ predictions are not only theoretical. The breeding season of 2024 provides an unfortunate reality test case in line with their more pessimistic model. Although some population changes may be attributed to delayed arrival or animals skipping a breeding season, data from friction seasons strongly suggest that adult mortality is the main driver of the sharp decline.
Dr. Claudio Campagna, senior consultant and co-author of WCS Argentina, associates the epidemic with a wider environmental concern: “Only resilient populations with healthy numbers and sufficient distributions can survive these threats and still avoid most causes of death associated with human activities, such as human activities such as high-impact fisheries, large-scale agriculture, large-scale agriculture and pollution.
The study draws on decades of demographic data collected by international research teams and is supported by organizations including the Liz Claiborne and the Art Ortenberg Foundation, which has been funding efforts to fund marine species along the Patagonia coast.
Although the seal of southern elephants has historically been a conservation success story for the region, the rapid destruction caused by H5N1 is a shocking reminder of how quickly the disease can reverse decades of population growth.
Wildlife health experts now warn that the pandemic may become more frequent and severe as climate change intensifies, potentially pushing vulnerable species to extinction. The seal case of Patagonian elephants demonstrates how people can be put into instability through the emergence of health threats.
For researchers working on these magnificent marine mammals, emotional harm is obvious. As Falabella points out, the team will “need the support of our donors to continue monitoring this outpost species that is the integrity of our coastal and marine ecosystems.”
The future of these iconic Patagonian residents is now in equilibrium, and their recovery schedule is well beyond the professional lifespan scientists currently record.
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