Worldwide, extreme weather is driving death toll, causing billions of dollars in damage, threatening food and water safety, and escalating forced immigration. However, some of the most complex climate models – computer simulations of the Earth’s extensive, complex climate systems based on the laws of physics – lack the critical signals.
Now, a research paper published in Nature Communications co-authored by postdoctoral researcher Feng Jiang; climate scientist Richard Seager, Lamont-Doherty Earth Perservatory and Mark Cane, G. Ungervetlesen Professor of Earth and Climate Science (Retired) holds a key finding of climate models, the key finding of climate models is why climate models start to start, why climate models start to start, and how climate models start to start a lot of things are wrong.
“Our Lamont work is at the center of debate in the climate science community and has triggered climate scientists around the world to rethink their models,” Seager said. “The difference can be found in the tropical Pacific. Specifically, the equatorial tongue.” Seager Explain. Cold tongue is a relatively cool water that runs along the equator from Peru to the Western Pacific, covering a quarter of the earth’s circumference. It has been hindering predictions by not heating up what generations of climate models say.
“When the rest of the tropical ocean is unwarmed cold tongue in southwestern North America, East Africa, southeastern South America, but is conducive to moisturization in other regions such as the Amazon,” Seager said. “This also means more tropical in the Atlantic Basin cyclone.”
By making the trend of cold tongue temperatures wrong, climate models will also be predicted in regional climate change in these and other regions. This is a difference, which has been around for over twenty years. Many scientists believe that natural El Niño southern oscillation variability is masking the reaction to elevated greenhouse gases, and eventually the equatorial cold tongue will begin to warm and align with the model. That didn’t happen.
“In 27 years, this difference between the model and the observation remains. In fact, over time, it becomes larger, not smaller,” Seager said. “The process of improving the model to better capture the temperature response of CO2 surfaces in the tropical Pacific is beyond time.”
The study shows for the first time that there are two modes working, one is natural variability and oscillating back and forth, the so-called trans-Pacific oscillation, a steadily emerging since the mid-1950s. Trend studies call Pacific Climate Change (PCC) Patterns. Scientists believe that the emerging PCC model is the response of the tropical Pacific to the rise of carbon dioxide.
“Our discovery sets a pathway to help climate modelers tell the difference,” Jiang said. “For the whole question of how the tropical Pacific responds to CO2 forcing, for regional climate change, and even how much warming we will experience, it’s a very good idea.” Important question.”
Jiang and Sige said there is still a lot of work to be done. However, this latest study provides important guidance for climate modelers and points to the need to address long-term biases that simulate emerging models, especially in cold tongue regions, to improve regional and global climate change predictions and their extreme weather Influence.
