Black children’s lead autism diagnosis surges

New CDC data reveal a sharp shift in the diagnosis of autism across the United States, with black children now showing the highest prevalence in multiple regions.

The findings, released in the CDC’s biennial surveillance report last week, showed that the overall autism rate has risen to one of 31 8-year-old children, a significant increase from one of 36 rates reported in 2020.

The Maryland study site, led by researchers at the Wendy Klag Center for Autism and Developmental Disability at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School, found that black children had the highest autism rate, with 1 out of 27, followed by 17, followed by Asian/Pacific Islander (1 in 32 in 32), multiracial (1 in 34 in 34), 34 years old, 34 years old (35 years old) and white (1 in 35) and 52 years old (1 in 52).

This pattern has undermined decades of autism diagnosis trends, historically viewing white men as the main population. “A few years ago, we only knew that autism was affecting white men. This latest ADDM report, along with a 2023 report, suggests that autism affects everyone, including women and children from all races and ethnic backgrounds,” explains Elise Pas, a research professor at Bloomberg School, and co-researcher at the Bloomberg School’s Department of Mental Health and Maryland Network.

The report examined data from 16 study sites in the U.S. and found that the prevalence of autism varies by region, from 0.97% in Laredo, Texas to 5.3% in California. This regional difference suggests significant differences in the availability of services for identification practices, healthcare access, and services.

For investors tracking opportunities in healthcare and education markets, this ever-changing population landscape signal is a potential area for growth and innovation. Now, underserved populations now show a higher autism rate representing the market, and professional services may be underdeveloped compared to emerging demand.

Data show that among children with autism and available cognitive assessments, 39.6% were classified as having intellectual disabilities (IQ ≤70). Black children with autism had the highest rate of concurrent intellectual disability at 52.8%, while 32.7% of white children – pointing to a later diagnosis, reducing access to early intervention services, or potential social determinants that affect development.

Encouragingly, the report shows progress in early identification. Children born in 2018 (now 4 years old) may have autism of 1.7 times higher than those born in 2014 (now 8 years old). This acceleration of early diagnosis may increase the need for early intervention services and technologies.

“The data suggests that we are identifying children earlier, and this should translate into the support children and their families need soon, which will help them realize their full potential,” said Christine Ladd-Acosta, associate professor in the Department of Epidemiology and co-director of Bloomberg College.

The prevalence of men and women continues to be narrowed – from 4.2 in 2018 to 3.4 in 2022, indicating that girls’ awareness of autism has improved, although the absolute prevalence of boys is still significantly higher.

Compared with the early decades, the socio-economic model has also reversed. Previous studies have consistently shown a higher rate of autism in wealthy communities, but 2022 data found that the prevalence rate was higher in low-income communities or was not associated with income levels in most communities.

From a market perspective, these findings point to changing demand for services. Reversals in socioeconomic and racial patterns suggest that access to diagnostic services can be improved in previously underserved groups, which may drive increased demand for support services in these communities.

Interestingly, although Covid-19 temporarily undermined the assessment service in early 2020, data showed diagnosis rebounding quickly. Telehealth assessments appeared in 8.7% of children born in 2018, indicating rapid adaptation to the remote assessment method, a potential growth area for digital health companies specializing in development assessments.

For technology developers, the report highlights significant differences in diagnostic practices across regions. Different assessment tools dominate in different positions, with some communities heavily utilizing standardized tools such as the diagnostic observation table for autism (39.6% recorded overall), while others rely on alternative approaches.

The CDC’s findings highlight that autism affects all population groups and are increasingly considered. As recognition rates continue to improve, especially among the historic population of tedious populations, demand for special education services, behavioral therapy and assistive technologies may grow significantly in the previously untrained market.

As developmental screening becomes more common and fair, the true prevalence of all demographic autism may become clearer, potentially leading to more targeted interventions and market opportunities for companies serving these communities.

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