Barry Bonds’ adjusted baseball rankings in the new era

Who is the greatest baseball player ever? For fans and historians, debate is eternal.

But a team of researchers at the University of Illinois believes they have finally established a more equitable way to answer the question, which is illuminated in a competitive environment for decades of evolving talent. Their new statistical framework is published in Applied Statistical Yearbookindicating that Barry Bonds and Willie Mays should receive the highest billing, long-held names like Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron when adjusting for ERA-specific factors.

A new argument over the past century

A research team composed of statisticians Shen Zheng, Christopher Kinson, Daniel Eck and historian Adrian Burgos Jr. developed what they call “Full House Models.” These models compare players in their seasons, while also taking into account the size and strength of the MLB talent pool at that time. The bigger the pool, the harder the competition will be, and then the great title will rise accordingly.

“What we really ask is: How impressive is the performance when judging the best player that can reasonably compete with someone?” said co-author Daniel Eck. Although the team did not invent player comparisons, their approach goes beyond the original statistics and even beyond traditional Sabermetrics, which mathematically considers the historical context of the league.

Who ranks where?

The survey results reorganized the rankings of history:

• Barry Bonds and Willie Mays Batting list
• Roger Clemens,,,,, Greg Madduxand Randy Johnson Lead the pitching team
• legend Hank Aaron and Baby Ruth Ranked slightly below their popular reputation hints

This is not to say that Ruth and Aaron are not dominant, the researchers stressed. But when today’s players face a global talent pool, its size and diversity grow dramatically, maintaining dominance means something different. They argue that the model makes modern participants commendable for the time they deserve and can correct nostalgia-driven historical ranking bias.

Why is the talent pool important

In Ruth’s time, the Major League Baseball talent pool ruled out the entire race and international demographic. “A smaller, isolated alliance means fewer top athletes compete for less position,” the author notes. Today’s players stand out from a massive and globalized system, making statistical outliers even more rare and impressive.

The complete house modeling approach quantifies this transition using nonparametric methods and sequential statistics to quantify recent outstanding performance in its appropriate statistical environment. The team also conducted sensitivity and multiverse analysis to test how different hypotheses, such as alternative talent pool estimates, affect rankings. The name is firm.

From Stat Lab to Baseball YouTube

The study is part of a broader program at ECK Sports Lab, a group dedicated to combining data science with baseball storytelling. Their work has entered popular media: Recently Baseball broken On Hank Aaron’s incredible consistency, stupid baseball clips focus on their approach.

Despite this, the researchers have not announced the final ruling. “This model is a tool, not a statement,” Eck said. “It adds to conversations and we hope it makes conversations better.”

The game continues

So, will fans stop debating in Barstools and Ballparks Ruth and Bonds? Not likely. But now, with some mathematical firepower in Illinois, these arguments are at least more informed and perhaps more fun.

Posted in Applied Statistical Yearbook,roll. June 19, 1925, No. 2

doi:10.1214/24-AOAS1992

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