The fastest growing category in the wine industry is not what you expect.
While headlines for alcohol-free wines, a new study review suggests that moderate-intensity wines (with 6-10% alcohol) may be the best place to ultimately lower alcohol products. Between 2023 and 2027, the 12% annual growth rate, and the No Lows (NLM) wine category is reshaping our perception of drinking, but psychology may determine which product is actually successful.
Dr. Hannah Ford’s comprehensive review at the Adelaide Business School analyzed 38 peer-reviewed studies to understand what attracted consumers to NLM wines. These findings reveal a complex social pressure, personal identity and surprising gender dynamics that wine companies are just beginning to understand.
Gender paradox in wine psychology
“The global wine industry is growing rapidly in response to growing health awareness and moderation-driven drinking trends,” Dr. Ford explained. “The review proposes that attracting NLM wines are tangible influenced by social factors, habits, self-identity, emotional responses and products.”
However, her research found striking contradictions. Although women generally prefer alcohol-free wines than men, the study found that wine consumption has a “strong symbolic link with femininity” that can create internal conflicts. Men face their own challenges, as non-alcoholic beverages are often considered feminine and potentially threaten male identities.
This psychological tension helps explain why moderate-intensity wines may succeed in the case of zero alcohol diet disorder. Alcohol is 7%, which is the best place for brands like McGuigan and Pepperjack to position their products – these wines still feel “real” to the consumer’s brain.
46% of the problems
A finding that didn’t make headlines shows a key flaw in current alcohol-free wines: Nearly half of the participants (46%) thought the alcoholic beverages tasted like juice. This perceptual problem can cause a series of problems. When consumers do not associate products with “wine”, they are less willing to pay for wine prices or spend in the wine environment.
The study unanimously shows that “the lower the alcohol content, the less likely the consumer is to associate it with the wine.” Mid-wine wines may have avoided this problem altogether. By maintaining enough alcohol to retain wine characteristics, they can avoid juice traps while still providing moderate benefits.
Social scripting and identity management
The study shows that drinking decisions are not really taste, but about social signals. Regular wine consumption projects “prestige and sophistication” allow consumers to show “richness”. NLM wines face challenges in competing with these deep social implications.
But generational changes may be changing the equation. Celebrity endorsements by people like Sarah Jessica Parker, who launched 7% alcohol wine, suggest that “fashionable sobriety” could become the new social currency. The study found that younger consumers showed greater acceptance of low-alcohol products, which may be driven by health awareness and changing refined definitions.
It is particularly revealed that 73.61% of consumers consume non-alcoholic beverages while others are drinking. This shows that NLM wine is a social disguise that allows people to participate in the drinking culture while making different personal choices.
Alternative Science
Dr. Ford’s team applied a behavioral psychology framework to understand why some people switch and others resist. The study shows that five key psychological factors affect adoption: social influence, habit formation, personal identity, emotional responses, and product tangibility.
The study found that wine companies themselves play a “critical role” in shaping consumers’ perceptions. Retailers decide what is available, and marketers can influence how the product is positioned. This creates opportunities for strategic interventions.
The main findings that emerged in the analysis include:
- Consumers expect to pay less for NLM wines and see drinking as gaining “less value”
- Young consumers are particularly sensitive to price
- Marketing messages are currently focused on health benefits, but may miss deeper social needs
- Despite the cultural significance of wine, intercultural research does not actually exist
Beyond the buzzwords
The study highlights one major gap that industry players need to address: term confusion. The study used a very different definition, with some calling 8% alcohol “low” and others using “low medium” for 7% of products. Current market products will have an alcohol content of about 6.8-7%, but academic research does not comply with these practical standards.
“Most studies review low or lower alcohol wines. At the same time, few people focus on alcohol-free wines and even compare alcohol-free and low-alcohol products,” Dr. Ford noted.
This confusion of definition is not just academic finicky—it reflects the industry’s efforts to effectively position products. Without a clear category, consumers will not be able to generate coherent expectations or preferences.
Religious and cultural dimensions
One aspect that is often overlooked in marketing discussions is religious acceptance. The study found that although some products are halal certified, 81% of Malaysian consumers believe that the wine they drink is not halal. This religious complexity adds another layer to global market considerations, purely secular analysis missing.
The cultural significance of wine varies from region to region, but most of the research comes from only three countries: the United Kingdom, France and Australia. This Western bias may miss out on key insights on how NLM wines can succeed in emerging markets.
expect
Dr. Ford suggests that future research should focus on “emotional responses, cross-cultural influences, implicit decision-making, and the application of behavioral theories such as cognitive dissonance and behavioral reasoning.”
Research shows that successful adoption of NLM wine requires coordinated efforts between consumers and the industry. Wine companies need to better understand the psychological factors driving choices, while consumers need to provide products with practical and emotional benefits.
Perhaps most importantly, the study shows that moderate-intensity wines represent not only product categories, but also potential bridges between traditional wine culture and emerging health awareness. Whether they can successfully browse the complex psychology of wine consumption may determine the future of the industry’s relationship with alcohol.
As the global shift to temperance, the winners are not necessarily the lowest alcohol content products, but the ones that best understand the human psychology behind every pour.
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