The glaciers on the semi-earth disappeared even with climate targets

Even if the country meets its most ambitious climate goals, Earth’s glaciers face a grim future, and new research shows that limiting global warming to 1.5°C above former industrial levels will still trigger half of all glacier mass outside Antarctica and Greenland.

The comprehensive study, published in science, uses eight advanced glacier models to simulate what happens when glaciers reach equilibrium of various constant temperature schemes over thousands of years. Unlike previous studies that only predicted changes between 2100, the analysis reveals the full extent of promised losses.

A distinct number

Global glaciers will eventually lose 47% of their mass, according to the Paris Agreement’s most optimistic 1.5°C warming target, relative to the 2020 level. If warming reaches 2.7°C (the trajectory under current climate policy), the loss will jump to 76%.

“This is the point: When you stop climate change, glaciers don’t stop losing mass,” said the study’s co-author. “Glaciers have a memory. They continue to lose mass of hundreds of thousands, hundreds or even thousands of years until they retreat to a colder, higher altitude.”

A team of 21 scientists from 10 countries analyzed more than 200,000 glaciers around the world, revealing often overlooked key insights: glaciers are slow to respond to climate change, which means today’s ice has been severely out of balance with current temperatures.

Regional changes tell different stories

The study found sharp regional differences in glacier fragility. Arctic Canada South faces its worst prospects, even under current conditions, and is expected to lose 85% of its mass even under current conditions. Western Canada and the United States will lose 74%, while regions such as South Asia West are only 5% resilience.

At 1.5°C, Alaska contains the world’s third largest glacial mass, which will lose 41% at 1.5°C, but will lose 69% under the current policy trajectory. Under the Paris Agreement goal, the ice will take about 330 years to reach equilibrium.

What determines the vulnerability of a region? This study identified glacier elevation range as a key factor. The glaciers span altitudes (such as the Himalayas), providing retreats for higher, colder altitude routes. Flat, low-lying glacier areas have nowhere to hide from warm temperatures.

Time factors change everything

Perhaps the most striking thing is the difference in response time across regions. Some glaciers in tropical mountains have been adjusted within decades, while huge ice formations in polar regions take centuries or thousands of years to reach their new equilibrium.

In the case of 80% of the promised mass losses, the Lower Arctic and Antarctic Islands will take more than 800 years. This slow response explains why many of the polar regions that appear stable today are actually committed to future dramatic changes—they simply don’t have time to respond to the warming that has already occurred.

Harry Zekollari, co-leader writer at Vrije Universiteit Brussel in Belgium, stressed the urgency: “Our research is clear that a certain degree of every part is important. The choices we make today will resonate over hundreds of years to determine how much our glaciers can retain.”

Beyond the headlines

The study reveals disturbing amplification effects that are often missed in climate discussions. In glacially covered areas, air temperatures are 80% higher than the global average, and there is no warming situation. This means a world where 2°C is warm globally and 3.6°C will be experienced where most glaciers exist.

The study also found that the regions that currently show the smallest change are actually the most sensitive to future temperature rises. Western South Asia, Central Asia and New Zealand will now (now stable) experience the highest acceleration on ice loss and additional warming.

Sea level and beyond

Glacier mass loss translates into massive sea level rise: 138 mm warming below 1.5°C, jumping to 230 mm under current policy commitments. But the impact goes far beyond the coastline.

Glacier losses can affect billions of people, change biodiversity and ecosystem water supply, increase natural hazards such as floods and landslides, and destroy tourism economies that rely on mountain landscapes.

Lilian Schuster, a co-leading writer from Innsbruck University, sees the current situation as a good indicator of climate change in a clear perspective, as their retreat will allow us to see the way climate change is seen with our own eyes. However, because they are adjusted over longer time scales, the current size greatly underestimates the extent of climate change that has already occurred. ”

The Millennium of Consequences

The research timeline goes far beyond typical policy discussions. Even under the most optimistic Paris Agreement plan, about 1,000 years will pass before glaciers are fully balanced with the new climate, a sober reminder that today’s emission choices have allowed future generations to lose ice for centuries.

The study, which emerged in the United Nations International Glacier Preservation Year, highlights what the author calls “the critical role of climate policy in protecting our glaciers.” The message is clear: Although some glacier losses are inevitable nowadays, the difference between moderate and disastrous results depends entirely on the world’s behavior limiting the rate of warming.