Tornadoes, wildfires, tropical cyclones and sea level rise are all within the dangers of climate change. It is crucial to answer questions about the severity of these disasters, how often and how often they occur, and where areas may suffer the maximum damage. To meet this need, Colombian climate scientists at the National Center for Disaster Preparation (NCDP) led the U.S. Natural Hazards Climate Change Prediction Project, which can provide officials, relief organizations, urban developers and families with the information they need for the worst plans.
The program brings together several public and academic researchers to develop a novel interactive dataset to track and predict the occurrence of extreme events of climate change burning at the county level throughout the mid- and late century. The project is based on the Natural Hazard Index v2.0, which is a phenomenon for 14 different types of hazards.
The team identified huge harms of future climate change, including escalating wildfire threats to San Diego and Yakima County, Washington. The risk is high now, and the model points out it is getting worse. There is currently no Dakota with a high incidence of wildfires that should be prepared for the increase. Louisiana will see fewer wildfires in the future, but potential data suggest that this is because there will be more precipitation, and more precipitation may mean more flooding.
These are just some predictions of the model as part of the project.
“We showed what the baseline hazards are and then what will change in the middle of this century and mid-century,” said Jonathan Sury, senior staff member of the NCDP and principal investigator for the project. “For example, things will get worse?
These new datasets are composed of maps, charts and introductory narratives that help users understand how hazards, hazard profiles are under the influence of climate change, and other information about the dataset itself, which is of particular interest to scholars and researchers.
The project identified another famous and shocking red flag: increased risk of tornadoes on the East Coast.
“We know the trend is moving tornado eastward, and now we can actually show a huge change and an increase in tornado numbers from Tornado Alley and then above the eastern coastal areas,” Suri said. “Our previous tornado datasets are just looking at historical data. Our extreme heat layer has been focusing on trends for the past 40 years. This is what happens from different climatic conditions and different climatic conditions and different time periods from now to future.”
“While the challenges of climate change and disasters may seem incredible, it is also important to point out that we have more knowledge,” said Jeffrey Schlegelmilch, NCDP Director and Professor of Professional Climate Professional Practice at NCDP Columbia Climate School. “By working across sectors and partnerships with such a partnership, we can provide data that is empirically rigorous and immediately relevant to stakeholders outside of academia. This helps promote better decision-making, better investment and better resilience to our communities.”
Recognizing the risks and value of predicted data, the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency is integrating a tool to track how future climate change factors exacerbate natural disasters. The Trump administration has placed these plans under indefinite holdings, while also removing many government agencies tracking sites.
“We are at a time when the harm we face is increasingly affecting the lives and livelihoods of our communities,” Schlegelmilch said. “At the same time, we are seeing datasets being deleted, just when we need them most.”
Disappearing dataset policies can present challenges. However, according to Sury, the new forecast map summarizes existing datasets, which contain the best, currently available data and utilizes state-of-the-art technological approaches to generate novel research to predict – climate change will intensify and escalate the risks of four hazards over time: tornadoes, tornadoes, tropical environments, field and sea level.
“Since the climate of these hazards is changing, we cannot rely solely on past experience and historical data to guide our understanding of risks”
Traditionally, the science of preparation for extreme events relies on historical event data to predict and simulate future trends. The project changed the paradigm.
“Since the climate of these hazards is changing, we cannot rely solely on past experience and historical data to guide our understanding of risks and how we invest to help reduce them,” Schlegelmilch said.
The new map and basic dataset, released on April 21, is the third hazard data product based on the Beta version of the Natural Hazard Index, which was first released in 2016. This tool is intended to complement the development of the Prepared Wizard, a clickable resource for building a home emergency plan. In 2023, Sury and his team developed the U.S. Natural Hazard Index v2.0 to update and better visualize natural hazard data in the United States and Puerto Rico.
In the latest dataset, the research team builds on in-depth existing research and analysis to track the trajectory of sea level rise and derives tropical cyclone data from the combination of existing, ongoing and new research. Here, predictions also show escalating risks.
“Tropical cyclones cause great damage in the United States, and risks are expected to grow with climate change,” said Simona Meiler, a postdoctoral researcher in the science of weather and climate risk at Stanford University, who co-developed and provided modeled datasets to NCDP.
“The climate system’s response to man-made compulsions is not uniform and remains uncertain; near-future hurricane changes may vary geographically,” said Chia-Ying Lee, associate research professor at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia. “We need to look at the changes in regional risks provided by this map. In this dataset, it is assumed that storm frequency increases with global warming.”
“By making this data available in an accessible format, we aim to support not only climate scientists and risk modelers, but also urban planners, emergency managers and researchers in other fields, such as economics or human mobility. The goal is to make future tropical cyclone risks more visible, especially in the most vulnerable areas,” Meiiler said.
Although these predictions are daunting, researchers emphasize that knowledge is the best defense in society. The team has opened the data and is available to everyone to position research as its best.
“These are most helpful for people who have long-term interests in the future,” Schlegelmilch said. “For individuals, it may involve looking at the emergencies you may face, which may affect your investment in your home or what kind of harm you plan for in terms of your own personal preparation.”
Investors will want to understand exposure to dangerous exposure, whether it is physical assets or exposure to an economy that increases danger. This in turn helps incentivize elastic investment to offset these risks. Emergency managers and city planners can use these risks to investigate how hazards may change, which will affect disaster plans more broadly.
