Ocean warming accelerates, shocking scientists

According to a newly published study, satellite data shows that sea surface temperatures are getting faster and faster, and it warms 4.5 times faster than in the late 1980s.

The study, published in the Environmental Research Letter, found that between 1985 and 1989, sea surface temperatures rose by 0.06°C every decade. In contrast, the period from 2019 to 2023 showed a sharp acceleration to 0.27°C per decade.

This acceleration mode helps explain why 2023 saw unprecedented ocean temperatures, disrupting previous records. Extreme warmth lasted for 450 days, far exceeding scientists’ expectations, based solely on climate patterns like El Niño.

“This energy imbalance will drive climate change,” explained the study’s lead author Chris Merchant of Reading University. “Given the acceleration of ocean warming and evolving climate dynamics, we need continuous monitoring and data improvements to ensure that our climate models accurately reflect future temperature rises.”

The team analyzed forty years of data collected from 20 satellites, including data from the European Space Agency’s climate change program. While normal climate variability can cause ocean temperature fluctuations, potential warming trends are clearly accelerating.

These findings contradict the general assumption that global warming takes place at a steady linear rate. Instead, researchers found that warming is accelerating as heat energy accumulates in the Earth’s system.

When scientists compared the recent El Niño incident in 2023-2024 with previous major events in 2015-2016, they found that no temperature difference could be explained by not taking this acceleration effect into account.

“Our research clearly shows that increased accumulation of planetary energy is the main driver of long-term sea warming, while short-term changes in El Niño, volcanic activity and solar changes increase variability, but do not change the overall acceleration trend,” said Owen Embury, co-author and scientific leader ESA-CCI-CCI Sea-Sea-Sear-Sear-Surface Project.

The study shows that rising greenhouse gas levels are the main reason for this acceleration, and the possible reduction of atmospheric aerosols that previously had cooling effects.

Using these observations, the researchers project future warming, concluding that sea surface temperatures may be faster than previously suggested estimates in the coming decades. In the moderate case, the team projected the ocean surface, which could maintain 0.78°C between 2025 and 2045, surpassing the total warming observed in the past four decades.

Even in their most optimistic situation, with the imminent implementation of mitigation efforts, warming remains twice as fast as linear inferences of past trends.

The study has a distinct impact on climate policy. As the study concludes, “The rate of global warming in recent decades has been a bad guide to faster changes that may occur in the coming decades, underscoring the urgency of a substantial reduction in fossil fuel combustion.”

This accelerated ocean warming pattern can exacerbate extreme weather events, damage marine ecosystems, and accelerate sea level rise in the coming years, so that continuous monitoring and modeling are crucial for accurate climate predictions.