Science rolls a perfect game with new bowling strike prediction model

An international research team has developed a mathematical model that can change competitive bowling strategies forever. Using physics simulations and differential equations, scientists mapped the best conditions to achieve a strike and could potentially change the pro bowling game.

The study, published today in AIP Advanceds, addresses the long-term challenges in the bowling community – accurately predicting how the ball travels along the lane under different conditions.

“The simulation models we created could become a useful tool for players, coaches, equipment companies and tournament designers,” said Curtis Hooper, one of the researchers behind the study. “The ability to accurately predict ball trajectories may lead to discoveries of new strategies and equipment design.”

The bowling industry is much bigger than many realize, with over 45 million average participants in the U.S. alone and millions of dollars in interest each year. Nevertheless, bowlers rely heavily on statistical analysis of empirical data rather than theoretical modeling to improve their game.

Most competitive bowlers intuitively understand that oil patterns in the lane can produce different friction surfaces that affect the ball’s trajectory, but specific physics remains elusive. The new model fills this gap by combining variables including initial velocity, emission angle, angular velocity, and friction curves created by lane oil patterns.

What makes this study particularly valuable is its inconsistent accounting for humans. The researchers combined a “small room” calculation that explains the natural differences in the release of bowlers.

“Our model provides solutions to both problems by building a bowling model that accurately calculates bowling trajectories when giving inputs to all the important factors that may affect the ball’s movement,” Hooper explained. “The ‘Miss-ember’ was also calculated to illustrate human inaccuracy so that bowling can find its own best target strategy.”

The researchers found that the gap in errors was even greater for certain oil patterns targeting specific regions. When the bowler plays a role in the boundary between the two friction areas, a slight deviation in its target is naturally corrected – the higher friction areas pull the ball in one way, while the lower friction areas differ.

This insight confirms what elite bowling has long been suspicious but cannot quantify: the ideal row is not just about hitting the pocket, but about choosing a path with the maximum tolerance of human error.

The team faces several technical obstacles in creating models, especially when describing subtle asymmetric bowling sport and converting complex physics into terms that coaches and players can easily understand.

Pine Creek Lanes’ bowling coach Mark Davidson was not involved in the study and he immediately applied. “It may have completely changed how we train serious players,” he said in a phone interview. “We can actually show them the physics of some methods that work better than relying solely on feeling and trial and error.”

The research team, composed of scientists from Princeton, MIT, the University of New Mexico, Loughborough and Swarthmore College, plans to further refine their models by considering lane terrain changes and working with bowling industry professionals.

For competitive bowlers, this kind of physical and sports strategy marriage cannot come in a better time. As the tournament’s design becomes more complex, with complex petroleum patterns, scientific advantages can make the difference between hitting and stunning.