Clean energy transition can promote national security in most countries

Transfers from fossil fuels could make most countries safer and less susceptible to disruptions in energy trade, according to groundbreaking research published in Natural Climate Change on April 9.

Research from Stanford University shows that by 2060, about 70% of countries will reduce energy security risks by transitioning to zero net emissions, challenging the geopolitical impact of clean energy adoption.

“Most people are focused on something new that might be a problem, rather than really considering the safety benefits of leaving fossil fuels,” said Steve Davis, senior author of the study and professor of earth systems science at Stanford Doerr’s School of Sustainability. “For most countries in future zero-emission systems, reducing their dependence on imported fossil fuels and their dependence on these new materials is actually a victory for energy security.”

Although key minerals such as lithium, nickel and cobalt have become new prizes in the global energy competition, research shows that relying on these materials often poses less risk of trade than ongoing dependence on imported oil, gas and coal.

Even the United States, which has large reserves of fossil fuels but key minerals, will gain energy security through decarbonization, especially if it develops diversified trade relations for these resources.

The United States has been a net exporter of petroleum products since 2020, but it still imports millions of barrels per day from countries such as Canada, Mexico and Saudi Arabia. “Use solar and wind power generation will require more imports than using abundant natural gas and coal resources in the United States, but as transportation electrification, a decrease in dependence on foreign oil will be a big advantage.”

A research team led by postdoctoral scholar Jing Cheng evaluated 1,092 different pathways to achieve zero emissions worldwide by 2060. They created a comprehensive database to track resource reserves and trade flows across 236 countries, and then evaluated the security implications of each case.

Their analysis utilizes a new “trade risk index” based on factors such as domestic resource availability, import dependence, economic value and market concentration. With this approach, they determined that if the state maintains the current trade network, energy security risks will drop by an average of 19% in the net zero scenario. If countries expand their trading relations, the risk may drop in half.

Recycling provides another powerful strategy to reduce vulnerability. The study found that four times the current recovery rate of key minerals would reduce global trade risks by an average of 17%, compared with more than 50% in the United States.

For the United States, researchers have identified an optimal energy mix that minimizes trade risks: about 70-75% renewable energy, 15-20% fossil fuels, and 10% nuclear energy. This is a major shift with today’s energy landscape, with fossil fuels providing about 83% of U.S. energy demand.

Interestingly, given the existing trade relations, wind power currently provides a greater safety benefit to solar energy than the United States. “However, using the more widely available low-level silicon resources to advance solar PV manufacturing technology, or expanding trade networks with countries rich in silicon and manganese reserves, could further promote U.S. energy security,” Cheng noted.

These findings are of great significance to global energy policy, suggesting that the transition to clean energy can simultaneously address climate goals and strengthen national security in most countries.

However, not all countries benefit equally. The study identified oil-rich countries such as Russia and Saudi Arabia among ethnic minorities that could potentially reduce energy security in the net zero scenario even as the trade network expands.

Diversification is the central theme in risk mitigation. “If you want to import a big part of what you need, it’s a vulnerability. If that’s all from a single other party, then there’s a big risk that there could be some natural disaster or geopolitical conflict that could destroy supply,” Davis said. “You want to diversify imports in as many sources as possible.”

However, the researchers stress that diversity alone is not enough – reducing fossil fuel dependence remains crucial to enhancing energy security. “The ultimate encouragement of trade risks in most countries is to reduce, and the biggest improvements often occur in countries that minimize their dependence on fossil fuels,” the author concluded.

As countries develop climate policies and energy transition plans, the study suggests that they may not need to choose between environmental goals and energy security. For most countries, these goals seem increasingly unified, providing a compelling case for accelerating the transfer from fossil fuels.

This international study involves collaborators from multiple institutions including Stanford University, Tsinghua University, Beijing Normal University and Peking University.