Next time, devastating large groups have an impact on vulnerable communities across Africa, Asia or South America, and forecasters may look like they don’t look like the sky, but send a critical early warning on the ground. Gradually pioneering research shows that a simple contrast between wet and dry soil patches can amplify rainfall by up to 30% in regions of nearly 400 million people worldwide.
“Mesoscale convective systems are the most intense thunderstorms on Earth and the severity due to climate change is increasing,” said Dr. Emma Barton, a meteorologist at UKCEH and lead author of the study. “Elevated temperatures may increase the contrast between wet and dry areas of the soil, further exacerbating thunderstorms in areas already severely affected.”
The team analyzed satellite data from multiple continents for 20 years and found that surface conditions affecting rainfall could be observed two to five days before the storm strikes – a potential game-changer for communities that these weather systems often destroy.
The time is urgent. Last year alone, severe floods related to heavy rainfall in western West Africa and Central Africa caused more than 1,000 people, displaced, more than 500,000 people, and destroyed 300,000 homes. Just last month in Argentina, a severe storm killed 13 people, displaced more than 1,000 people, and swept away cars while destroying critical infrastructure. In Bangladesh, India, a recent thunderstorm damaged about 800 homes, injured 300 people and killed five people.
Dr. Cornelia Klein, a meteorologist and study co-author at UKCEH, explains why these findings represent a paradigm shift: “Meteorologists tend to focus on atmospheric conditions to predict weather patterns. However, with increasing evidence that we should also consider what is happening on the land surface to improve predictions.”
The mechanics behind this phenomenon involve complex interactions between the land and the atmosphere. When there is a significant contrast between wet and dryer areas over large distances, it creates a temperature difference in the air above. These temperature changes drive changes in wind direction and velocity at different altitudes, resulting in turbulence, which helps storms grow in larger areas and generate more rainfall.
Although the study focused primarily on West Africa, India and South America, researchers observed similar patterns on the Great Plains of China, Australia and the United States, suggesting that the soil moisture-erosive link is a global phenomenon.
The actual meaning exceeds academic interests. Early storm warnings allowed communities to relocate families, livestock and property to higher grounds, or to clear drainage before flooding. For areas with limited infrastructure and sparse communication networks, even a day of additional warning can save countless lives.
This finding is based on previous UKCEH studies and found that land surface conditions often affect the direction and intensity of the large JPMorgan Chase after formation, while deforestation increases the frequency of storms in some rapidly developing coastal cities in Africa.
Looking ahead, the research team is exploring what factors lead to regional changes in this phenomenon. They also use advanced climate models to better understand that as global temperatures continue to rise, rainfall intensity may change.
Perhaps most importantly, UKCEH has developed computer software tools to help meteorological agencies generate more reliable short-term forecasts. These include an online “existing” portal based on satellite-derived data on the African atmosphere and soil conditions, which may provide up to six hours of additional warning time.
“Understanding how soil moisture affects storm activity and the possibility of future changes is critical for more accurate short-term forecasts to warn communities about approaching storms and making long-term forecasts,” Dr. Barton noted.
As climate change continues to strengthen global extreme weather events, these findings bring rare hope—not by preventing the storm itself, but by giving vulnerable communities valuable preparation time every minute of calculation.
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