The Mediterranean Basin is designated as a hot spot for climate change due to extreme weather events observed over the past few decadesYingshi century. Future warming rates in the Mediterranean basin are expected to be 20% higher than the global average and increase by 50% in the summer. Increased temperatures may lead to the occurrence of warm curses and droughts, which may have harmful socioeconomic and ecological effects on the Mediterranean basin.
Research published in the journal Extreme weather and climateBy Professor Eva Paton and graduate student Johannes Vogel of the Technical University of Berlin and his colleagues Professor Axel Bronstert of the Potsdam University and Dr Valentin Aich of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact, the last forty years in the Mediterranean Basin, quantified and studied the warmth of the last forty years in the Mediterranean Basin. Mantra and drought quantity. In this study, the occurrence of drought and heat waves at the same site was defined as a composite weather event.
The research team studied extreme warm season compound activity and compound activity throughout the year (very orderly), which was intense relative to the time of year. The peak method used to define thermal spells, while drought is defined by using two indices (Standard Precipitation Index and Standard Precipitation Evaporation Index).
The occurrence of warm seasons and significant increase in seasonal compound events were found in the last forty years of the Mediterranean Basin (1979-2018). The warm weather compound events are always increasing compared to seasonal events. The Western Balkan countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro and northern Macedonia) showed the highest growth in the compound events, followed by Italy, Morocco, France and Spain. “This is consistent with previous findings, indicating that the hot tail has the highest temperature and rises much faster than average temperatures, with an average temperature of up to 6°C, said Johannes Vogel, chief writer, said .
As the compound events changed, Professor Paton and his team also investigated whether any of the two separate components promoted the compound events. For seasonal compound events, the observed annual growth rate is about 4%, while adding warm spells. The change in drought incidence is uncertain because it varies according to the application definition. In summary, this study confirms that the changes in drought in the region are not due to changes in precipitation, but are due to increased evaporation in warm Sepid.
The researchers also investigated the temporal distribution of these composite events and identified the most warm season compound events that occurred in July and August. In February, May and June, seasonal compound events are the largest. Warm warm spells are the biggest in August, and the seasonal warm spells are the highest in April. Warm-based droughts in evaporation were the biggest in July, with evaporation-based droughts in all months except March and November.
This study confirms previous findings that extreme compound weather events of drought and warm spells occurred in the last forty years of the Mediterranean and are likely to rise. These compound events are caused by warm spells, which lead to drought. Johannes Vogel stressed: “In late spring, the compounding event is very extreme at that time of the year. This is worrying because it is a crucial agricultural phase. This highlights the To consider the importance of such events, this could be missed if the absolute extremes of only one year have been studied. “To obtain valuable data and prepare for proper risk management in the region, thorough use of warm spells and droughts are needed. monitor.
Journal Reference
Vogel, Johannes, Eva Paton, Valentin Aich and Axel Bronstert. “Add compound warmth in the Mediterranean basin and drought.” Extreme weather and climate32 (2021): 100312. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100312
About the Author
Johannes Vogel, Master
postgraduate
Johannes Vogel He holds a bachelor’s degree in environmental science from the University of Oldenburg and a master’s degree in global change ecology from the University of Bayreuth. He has been a member of the Ecological Hydrology Working Group of the Technical University of Berlin since 2018 and is part of the graduate school “Natriskchange” at the University of Potsdam. In his PhD dissertation, he investigates how the mantras and drought of complex warmth in the Mediterranean basin developed over the past few decades and evaluates the impact of these complex events on ecosystem productivity and phenology in the region.
