As the bird flu continues to circulate in wild birds and livestock, public health officials are increasingly concerned about the virus’s potential to spread in humans and may cause epidemics.
So far, humans have only contacted infected animals and cannot deliver the virus to other humans.
In recent comments Natural MedicineTulane virologist Bob Garry outlines what he believes are crucial to prevent H5N1 from developing human-to-human transmission — which strategies should be adopted if the virus can develop into a larger threat.
Bird flu circulates extensively in the spillovers of wild birds, cattle, cats, mice and some humans. What is the main information in your comment outlines how to prevent and respond to viruses?
Bob Gary: We need to take bird flu seriously. Preventing virus adaptation and development of human-to-human transmission is the biggest priority in preventing human epidemics. If the bird flu does turn into a human-infectious virus, that could make the Covid-19 pandemic look like a walk in a park, even the low rate of serious illness we’ve seen so far is enough to cause crisis. But we can take some specific steps to prepare.
What are the steps?
BG: We need to eliminate the circulation of viruses in dairy cattle and protect farm workers. This means more screening, testing bulk milk boxes, providing farmers with free personal protective equipment, and increasing human screening for people who come into contact with potentially infected animals. Even with these steps, infectious strains of humans will appear. We will need to ensure that methods spread and disinfect air in schools, houses and workplaces, prepare potential mass tests for laboratories and, of course, repair public trust in the wake of the COVID-19-19 pandemic.
Is the potential of mutation the biggest concern for bird flu?
BG: Yes, our biggest concern is a single mutation or something that may lead to the development of transmissibility between humans. One way viruses can do this is through reclassification with other influenza viruses. States are currently seeing a wave of flu cases, and if you put one person or one animal infected with both viruses, they may regenerate potentially more pathogenic and contagious viruses. Many pandemics have begun this way, so we need to eliminate as much circulation as possible of the virus.
Colorado requires milk truck tanks on its dairy farms to be tested weekly and cleared the H5N1 herd, the only state to do so. What obstacles do farmers in other states face?
BG: For greater benefit, it is difficult to ask someone to give up their income and make a living. And, many governments won’t step in to stop what may or may not have happened. So this can be a difficult sale and we need to better support farmers by providing free PPE.
Canada has just ordered a supply of bird flu vaccines, and the CDC has identified candidate viruses that can be used to develop vaccines. What is the current landscape of bird flu vaccine?
BG: You must be prepared to increase yields based on any viral strains that are circulating. At the same time, we do need to provide people with better information on what risks are. If you have the flu, stay at home. If we end up circulating bird flu between humans, simple things like this can seriously affect the deep penetration of this virus. We must learn from the 199 pandemic and improve our scientific exchanges. Viruses like this pose a health threat, but as we see egg prices, they can also pose economic problems and can hinder the capabilities someone provides for their families.
The first spread of bird flu to humans was in 1997. By knowing how long the virus takes, messaging becomes more difficult.
BG: I think people are hesitant to see the threat because it has been around for a while. And it hasn’t caused a pandemic, but the potential exists. When I see the virus entering our cows, I think, “Wow, this virus may have changed.” If it develops its ability to spread in cattle, how many steps will need to be taken before humans can spread? The current pressure feels a little more urgent. You don’t want to create panic. But influenza is a serious disease, especially for the elderly and those at risk. In particular, H5 bird flu, the case mortality rate of this flu has been around 50% over the past few years, regardless of age or established status. So far, these current avian influenza strains are less lethal, with only a few of them deadly in humans, but each infected animal is a potential strain mixer that can produce more transmissible, viruses. Sex virus.
