The Earth has already exceeded critical climate thresholds before forecasting, according to new research published by Science on Thursday. The study shows that even with current climate policies, the planet can reach 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100, far exceeding the ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement.
These findings mark a major shift in climate science understanding, forcing a reassessment of global climate strategies. “It’s a reality check,” said Ted Schuur, professor of ecosystem ecology at Northern Arizona University, one of the authors of the study. “We have taken the first step by signing the Paris Agreement, but we are already living in the ‘changing world’ that we are trying to prevent.”
When world leaders gathered to sign the Paris Agreement in 2016, the 1.5-degree Celsius heating threshold seemed far away. The target has now been violated in 2024, decades ahead of expectations. The rapid acceleration is largely due to the huge changes taking place in the Arctic, where temperatures rise nearly four times the global average.
The Arctic shift is particularly evident when its sea ice coverage drops. Historically, the Arctic Sea maintained a predictable cycle of winter freezing and partial summer melting. However, the warming trend disrupts this pattern, with the ice melting increasingly in the winter of summer. This creates a feedback loop: As white ice replaces dark seawater, more solar heat is absorbed, further accelerating the warming process.
“The Arctic Sea has become unrecognizable,” Schul noted. “The ice we left at the end of the summer has been declining as time goes by. Soon, summer ice may become a thing of the past.” These changes take place Coming outside the region has the potential to open new transport routes and raise complex international relations issues.
On land, the situation is equally worrying. Rising temperatures are thawing vast areas of permafrost, releasing into the atmosphere in the form of greenhouse gases. Scientists predict that the decomposition of this organic substance can release levels of carbon dioxide and methane, comparable to emissions from major industrialized countries.
The local effects of these Arctic changes have echoed around the world. “We’re talking about a place that is far away from many people, but changes in the Arctic won’t stay in the Arctic,” Schuur explained. He noted that recent extreme weather events were evidence: “Last summer, temperatures in Phoenix exceeded 110,” he said. Day. This is mainly due to human greenhouse gas emissions, but in part due to the additional greenhouse gases in the Arctic.”
The implications of this study go beyond scientific observations that are considered by practical policy. With the 1.5-degree target now exceeding the 1.5-degree target, communities around the world face the challenge of adapting to the inevitable change while working to prevent more severe warming. The study shows that even fully implemented current policy commitments will still lead to 2.7 degrees of warming at the end of the century.
“We can’t stop the change from happening; it’s happening,” Schul admitted. “However, we can slow down changes by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and managing changes as much as possible, thus making people and ecosystems better in the future.”
Despite these sober findings, the researchers stressed the importance of ongoing action at the individual and community levels. Schuur encourages the public to participate in local sustainability initiatives, whether through participation in citizen meetings, proposing policy ideas or supporting environmental measures in local elections.
The study also deals with the potential of climate fatigue in individuals taking environmental action. While personal choices such as driving an electric car or using solar panels seem insignificant to the scale of global warming, Schuur believes these efforts are still valuable in slowing down the pace of change.
He advises: “Don’t give up even when faced with change.” “On the contrary, change your mind. Say to yourself: I live in a new, changed world. What should I do to help adapt and slow down change, So we have more time to adjust?”
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