Managing droughts in the Middle East and North Africa has long been a daunting challenge for governments and communities that rely on stormwater to raise agriculture and water resources. A new system will change this landscape. Developed by an international team led by Dr. Rachael McDonnell, Karim Bergaoui, Dr. Makram Belhajfraj and Dr. Stephen Fragaszy of the International School of Water Management, this compound drought indicator provides a powerful method for monitoring and managing droughts. The finding, published in a scientific report, demonstrates its potential to significantly increase the resilience of drought in the region.
This innovative system combines satellite data, which involves information collected from space instruments along with numerical models that simulate real-world processes that digitally simulate rainfall, plant health, soil moisture and water loss through evaporation and plants irregular water use. These monthly updates are critical to monitoring droughts that affect agriculture and ecosystems, helping governments make faster and more informed decisions. As Dr. Fragaszy explains: “The system was developed in collaboration with national institutions to meet technical and practical needs.” The tool has been incorporated into the drought management program in Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia, which is tailored to , designed to suit the agricultural and environmental conditions of each country.
Testing and improving the system involves a thorough verification process, which means checking its accuracy and reliability through tests. Compound drought metrics combine global satellite data with advanced technologies such as special filters and advanced cloud gaps, designed to address problems caused by cloud cover, and the cloud prevents accurate data collection. The results show more consistent and accurate drought detection. For example, in early 2022, the tool helped Morocco and Jordan allocate resources and provided drought relief based on reliable data. This adaptability makes compound drought indicators an effective tool for decision makers in areas affected by extreme weather.
One of the key advantages of composite drought indicators is that it is designed to be user-friendly to government agencies. In Jordan, for example, the integration of real-time rainfall data means that information is updated immediately as rainfall occurs, while direct modeling methods allow local institutions to generate updates on their own. In addition, the online platforms in Morocco and Jordan allow policy makers to examine seasonal and local levels of drought conditions, ensuring better targeting of resources and policies.
Experts involved in the project emphasized the importance of balancing accuracy with ease of use. As Dr. McDonnell notes, “The reliability and practicality of compound drought indicators depend on it being both precise and simple enough to allow officials to use effectively without dedicated training.” A focus on availability ensures that the tool Not only is it scientifically reliable, but it is also practical for daily use in areas with limited resources.
Building links between scientific insights and practical decision-making, integrated drought indicators are an important step in achieving international framework goals, such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the sendai framework for disaster risk reduction. These frameworks are global agreements aimed at addressing climate issues and reducing disaster risks through coordinated efforts. Its flexible design can also serve as a model for solving droughts in other regions, which greatly fuels global efforts to adapt to climate change.
This crucial tool emphasizes the value of international cooperation and technological innovation in solving one of the most pressing problems in the world. Now, the Middle East and North Africa can better face the severe impact of drought, bringing hope for a more sustainable and resilient future.
Journal Reference
Bergaoui K., Belhaj Fraj M., Fragaszy S. et al. “Develop composite drought indicators for operational drought monitoring in the Middle East and North Africa.” Scientific Report, 2024. Doi:
