With Rocket riding and air travel rebounding, researchers have identified an unsettling reality: 26% chances of falling space debris will pass through busy flight corridors, potentially forcing widespread flight disruptions.
Research by the University of British Columbia shows that while the chance of debris actually shocks the planes, accounting for 13,000 out of 430,000 a year, the increasing amount of space waste reenters the Earth’s atmosphere increasingly forces aviation authorities to make a decision on closing space. A difficult choice.
“Short after the launch, the recent explosion of the SpaceX starship demonstrated the challenge of having to suddenly close airspace,” explained Ewan Wright, chief writer and doctoral student in interdisciplinary studies at UBC. “The authorities have established an area for the aircraft to maintain a range, Many of them have to turn around or shift their flight paths.”
The study gained special significance after the 2022 incident, with Spanish and French aviation authorities having to close a portion of the airspace as 20 tons of rocket debris threatening to re-enter the atmosphere in Southern Europe.
The problem is intensifying last year with the launch of 258 Rockets successfully launched in 2024 and a record 120 uncontrolled rocket fragments re-entered. There are currently more than 2,300 rocket corpses orbiting the earth, all of which are destined to eventually return to Earth.
“But why do authorities have to make these decisions first? “Uncontrolled re-entry of the rocket human body is a design choice, not a necessary option,” said Dr. Aaron Boley, associate professor in the Department of Physics and Astronomy at UBC. “The space industry is effectively exporting risks to airlines and passengers. ”
This situation creates a dilemma for aviation authorities: either the possibility of space debris falling or facing economic and logistical challenges of route transfer and airspace closure.
The solution exists in the form of controlled re-entry, after use, the rocket is designed to crash safely into remote ocean areas after use. But, according to UBC political science professor Dr. Michael Byers, implementing the restoration requires international cooperation. “Unless everyone has to do this, the countries and companies that launch satellites won’t spend money on improving rocket designs,” he said.
This study highlights the risks in high-flow areas in particular. Denver, Colorado has the highest air traffic density, and at peak times, about one aircraft per 18 square kilometers per 18 square kilometers. When the researchers examined areas with a peak density of only 10% (similar to the airspace on Vancouver-seat), the researchers found that rocket debris reentered 26% of the age.
With space rollout and air travel continuing to increase, passenger numbers are expected to increase by nearly 7% in 2025, with the intersection of aviation safety and space debris posed an increasing number of challenges that require urgent international attention.
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