Earth’s average surface temperature in 2024 will be the hottest since modern records began in 1880, according to an analysis led by NASA scientists.
Global temperatures in 2024 are 2.30 degrees Fahrenheit (1.28 degrees Celsius) above the agency’s 20th-century baseline (1951-1980) and higher than the record set in 2023. August 2024) Monthly Temperature Record – Unprecedented Heat Wave.
NASA scientists further estimate that Earth’s temperature in 2024 will be about 2.65 degrees Fahrenheit (1.47 degrees Celsius) higher than the average temperature in the mid-19th century (1850-1900). Average temperatures have been more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the baseline for more than half of 2024, and due to mathematical uncertainties, the annual average temperature could exceed that level for the first time.
“The Paris Agreement on Climate Change requires efforts to keep temperatures below 1.5 degrees Celsius over the long term,” said Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, an affiliate of the Columbia Climate Institute. . “To put things into perspective, temperatures during Earth’s warm period 3 million years ago were only about 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, when sea levels were dozens of feet higher than today.”
Scientists conclude that the warming trend in recent decades is caused by carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases. The Earth’s carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will see record growth in 2022 and 2023, according to a recent international analysis. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from about 280 parts per million before industrialization in the 18th century to about 420 parts per million today.
NASA and other federal agencies regularly collect data on greenhouse gas concentrations and emissions. These data are available at the U.S. Greenhouse Gas Center, a multi-institutional effort that integrates information from observations and models with the goal of providing a single location for data and analysis for policymakers.
Temperatures in individual years can be affected by natural climate fluctuations such as El Niño and La Niña, phenomena that alternately warm and cool the tropical Pacific. A strong El Niño that began in the fall of 2023 helped push global temperatures past previous records.
Schmidt said the boom that started in 2023 continued to exceed expectations in 2024, despite the weakening of El Niño. Researchers are working to identify contributing factors, including the possible climate impact of Tonga’s volcanic eruption in January 2022 and recent reductions in air pollution, which could alter cloud cover and alter the way solar energy is reflected back into space.
“Records aren’t broken every year, but the long-term trend is clear,” Schmidt said. “We are already seeing the effects of extreme rainfall, heatwaves and increased flood risks, and as long as emissions continue the situation will get worse.”
NASA compiles its temperature records using surface air temperature data collected from tens of thousands of weather stations, as well as sea surface temperature data from shipborne and buoy instruments. The data were analyzed using methods that take into account the different spacing of temperature stations around the world and urban heating effects that could bias the calculations.
A new assessment released last fall by scientists at the Colorado School of Mines, the National Science Foundation, the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) and NASA further bolsters confidence in the agency’s global and regional temperature data.
“When climate changes, you first see it on a global scale, then you see it on a continental scale, then you see it on a regional scale. Now, we’re seeing it on a local level,” Schmidt said Special said. “Changes in people’s daily weather experience have become very apparent.”
Independent analyzes by NOAA, Berkeley Earth, the Met Office and Europe’s Copernicus climate service also concluded that global surface temperatures in 2024 were the warmest on record in modern times. Scientists at these agencies use much of the same temperature data in their analyses, but employ different methods and models. Each shows the same continuing warming trend.
Adapted from NASA press release.
