How Lightning Reshapes the Forests Quietly

Lightning may burst immediately, but its eco-toll lasts for years.

According to a new global study Global Change BiologyLightning directly kills about 320 million trees each year, which is other major causes of forest interference, but is largely unrecognized. These deaths released estimated 0.21–0.30 Giltons of carbon per year, highlighting the amazing role of lightning in shaping forest structures and global carbon cycles.

Modeling a hidden killer

Although lightning has long been associated with wildfires, its direct impact on tree mortality has been rarely quantified. To address this gap, researchers led by Andreas Krause of the Technical University of Munich combined lightning mortality as a dynamic global vegetation model called LPJ-Guess.

Their method used detailed live data from Colorado Island, Barro, Panama, where it was found that each lightning strike killed about 3.2 trees, usually through the killing of flash memory, which affected adjacent trees 45 meters away. By scaling these observations using global lightning density maps of satellite and ground sensors, the model simulates the lightning effect in global tropical and temperate forests.

Not only a tropical problem

Simulation display:

• Kill 301–340 million trees each year by lightning (> 10 cm)
• Of which 240,000-360,000 are big trees (diameter > 60 cm)
• Lightning causes 0.21–0.30 deaths of biomass per year
• In a world without lightning, global forest biomass will be 1.3%–1.7% higher

Most of this mortality occurs in tropical Africa, where lightning density and high prevalence of high, fragile trees are high. However, the study also found that lightning-induced tree deaths may increase temperate zones and northern forests as climate change intensifies thunderstorms.

Missing works in ecosystem models

“Most climate models will increase the increase in lightning frequency over the next few decades, so it is worth paying attention to this largely overlooked interference,” Klaus noted in the press release.

So far, the ecosystem model is just lightning as a source of fire points, not the direct cause of tree death. The researchers believe that this omission may underestimate forest turnover and distort predictions of carbon storage in future climate scenarios.

Some strikes are harder than others

Interestingly, in certain locations like Amazon and the American Pinewood, LPJ speculated that lightning mortality was underestimated, but performed well in Panama, thanks in part to the design of the model: It assumed that lightning struck the tallest tree accomplices, mimicking the real-world behavior. Bias in other forests may reflect a small number of secondary effects, such as beetle infection or long-delayed tree death, both of which are common after lightning strikes.

What’s next?

To improve accuracy, the authors call for more real-time data from forest lightning detection systems, especially outside the tropical regions, and keep a close eye on the vulnerability of specific species. For example, trees with denser wood or lower resistance can better withstand strikes, a factor that has not yet been fully integrated into the global model.

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Posted in Global Change Biology June 24, 2025. doi:10.1111/gcb.70312

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