Data destroys myths about fentanyl’s path into the United States

These numbers tell a stark story that contradicts the broad assumptions about how deadly fentanyl reaches American streets.

A comprehensive analysis of nearly 200,000 drug seizures suggests that the vast majority of wholesale fentanyl amounts enter the United States through the southern border with Mexico, rather than the northern border with Canada, a challenge to the recent policy decision that sees both borders as equally threatening.

Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University have developed a complex measurement system that can track large-scale fentanyl seizures in all U.S. counties between 2013 and 2024. Its disproportionate index compares the major drug bankruptcy in each county with the share of the population, revealing which areas are import hubs for import hubs.

Southern border advantage

Counties on the Mexican border account for only 2.35% of the U.S. population, but account for 40% of all major fentanyl seizures in 2023-2024. These “big” seizures are defined as more than one kilogram of powder or 1,000 tablets, representing millions of wholesale trafficking on the street.

The difference becomes more pronounced when examining the amount of seizures. Of all fentanyl found in major border epilepsy seizures, about 99% of the pills and 97% of the powder were found along the Mexican border. Santa Cruz County, Arizona, has a disproportionate ranking of 417 times higher seizures than their population suggests.

Meanwhile, the county bordering Canada tells another story entirely. Despite accounting for 3.1% of the U.S. population, Canada’s border counties account for only 1.2% of powder seizures, while 0.5% of pill seizures only weigh only.

Key findings include:

• San Diego County leads the country in large powder epilepsy
• Pima County, Arizona recorded the most epilepsy seizures
• Compared with the Canadian border
• Only four Canadian border counties showed any significant seizure activity

“The need to address drug flows based on data is needed,” explains Jonathan Caulkins, professor of operations research and public policy at Heinz College, Carnegie Mellon. “Our analysis contradicts the views used to justify certain tariffs that view traffic across the southern and northern borders as important.”

Canada’s border exception

This study identified only limited exceptions to the southern border pattern. Wayne County, Michigan (a resident of Detroit) recorded Canada’s largest border seizures, but the number was in line with researchers’ expectations for such a huge urban market. Epilepsy rates in two Alaska counties have increased, suggesting some supply flows in Canada serve remote Alaska communities.

Most interestingly, the Ohio County of Washington, which has appeared on the top roster due to an April 2023 operation against a Mexican-led organized crime group. However, the organization is providing rural and Native Americans near the Canadian border, which illustrates how the Mexican network expands its reach nationwide.

Whatcom County in Washington represents the strongest evidence of Canadian smuggling routes. Located south of Vancouver, the county is divided by Interstate 5 and recorded seizures 2.2 times the population forecast. However, these numbers account for only 0.15% of the country’s powder seizures.

Policy Impact

When policymakers debate border security priorities, the findings are the more than 70,000 Americans killed in the ongoing overdose crisis every year. The researchers believe their data undermines the reason for treating the Canadian border threat as comparable to the Mexican border flow.

“U.S. counties along the Canadian border are not an important part of this story,” said Bishu Giri, co-author of data scientists specializing in geospatial analysis. “Our findings question tariffs and other policies and policy justifications that view the threat of the northern border as quite serious.”

The analysis did not completely dismiss the supply control efforts. Historical examples show that targeted law enforcement can reduce opioid deaths, from Australia’s “heroin drought” in 2001 to Florida’s 2010-2011 Pill Mill crackdown. But effectiveness requires accurate positioning.

Researchers believe that enhanced U.S.-Canadian law enforcement cooperation could address limited northern mobility while bringing together intelligence about Chinese pioneer suppliers and Mexican trafficking organizations serving the markets of the two countries, rather than equal border treatment.

The timing of the study coincides with encouraging trends – a decline in the number of massive seizures and excessive deaths in 2024 may reflect successful execution against large cartels. Whether this represents temporary disruption or lasting change is unclear, but the data provides a roadmap for where future efforts may be most effective.

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