Airborne fungal spores with rising aerial fungal spore levels can provide early warnings for peaks in influenza and Covid-19 cases, according to new research presented by the American Society of Microbiology at the ASM ASM Microbe 2025 conference in Los Angeles.
The study conducted in Puerto Rico shows that tracking these environmental signals may provide a powerful unused tool for predicting seasonal waves of seasonal respiratory diseases.
From the ground to the air to the clinic
The research team was made by FélixE of Lynn University. Dr. Rivera-Mariani and the RIPLRT Institute lead the research institute to explore how natural environmental factors, especially fungal spores and pollen in the air, affect the timing and scale of viral respiratory outbreaks. Although spores and pollen are known to aggravate asthma and allergies, their relationship to viral diseases is not yet known.
Puerto Rico provides an ideal test site. Its year-round fungal and pollen activities, coupled with San Juan and Caguas’ active monitoring stations, provide a intensive data environment. The team used statistical and machine learning models to analyze daily environmental readings and virus case counts from 2022 to 2024 to test whether airborne exposure can predict infection peaks.
What they found – what might this mean
The results are surprising. Fungal spores (rather than pollen) are often closely related to elevated flu and 19 cases in a few days. This “lag effect” allows researchers to accurately predict peaks, especially in the fall.
- Airborne fungal spores predict viral stimulation In the same or next week
- Pollen has no consistent predictive value For influenza or common-19
- Prediction accuracy peaks in autumn months In two studied areas
“Our findings suggest that monitoring airborne fungal spore levels can help predict short-term outbreaks of influenza and Covid-19,” Rivera-Mariani said. “This provides early warning signals for public health systems and may be particularly valuable to vulnerable people.”
Transmission beyond humans
By pointing out environmental drivers, this study expands understanding of what causes the outbreak. It challenges the notion that humans alone transmit control the respiratory virus trend and raises the possibility of a wider environmental contribution. This insight can influence the timing of their alerts and interventions.
One important detail not highlighted in the press release: When fungal data is included, machine learning models always perform better than when only traditional epidemiological factors are considered. This suggests that fungal surveillance may add measurable value to prediction tools.
Looking to the future
Researchers now plan to explore whether fungal exposure is associated with more severe health outcomes, such as hospitalization or death, and test whether similar environmental patterns have occurred in other areas. Rivera-Mariani also hopes to work with health agencies to integrate fungal monitoring into a public health alert system.
“These findings may help inform environmental risk alerts, especially for older people or people with asthma and allergic rhinitis,” Rivera-Mariani noted.
Despite the need for more research, this work provides compelling cases for watching the air (not just the people) in an attempt to keep the next viral frenzy ahead.
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